Radical Questions

It seems as if opinion on American options in Iraq is moving closer and closer to the recommendation of the Iraq Study Group: that the U.S. government engage Syra and Iran, our hated rivals in the Middle East, in diplomatic negations in an attempt to end the sectarian bloodshed in Iraq. The question is, how can we persuade the Iranians and Syrians that it is in their interest to work with us and achieve an objective that we find acceptable? (read: no outside influnce; read: syria and iran.) If we don't provide them with compelling reasons, it may just be easier for them to continue funding their favorite militia in the gigantic "gangland" that is Iraq, in the hope that eventually their influence in that country will be strongest.

For the Iranians, the following idea occurred to me: What are the two most important issues facing Iran at the moment?

1. The possibility of a civil war in Lebanon and Hezbollah's precarious position in that country.

This is a very important issue to Iran, as the regime of President Ahmadinejad seeks to extend Iranian influence throughout the Middle East - particularly in Lebanon, as that country borders Iran's sworn enemy, Israel. The brief war between Hezbollah and Israel this summer severely weakened the Lebanese organization, as an article from Foreign Affairs magazine illustrates: "Hezbollah ended up in a full-scale war, in which it won some battlefield victories and popularity in the Arab and Muslim world but which devastated its Lebanese Shiite constituency and narrowed its tactical and political options." The arm of the Iranians in Lebanon, while still attached to the body, has pretty much gone limp.

As an incentive for Iranians to cooperate with us in Iraq, we could try to apply pressure on Israel to abandon (at least temporarily) its campaign against Hezbollah. Admittedly, that would be a very difficult feat to accomplish. I cannot imagine what amount of leverage from the U.S. would persuade Israel to "give up" on Hezbollah - that's like asking the U.S. to "give up" on defeating Al Qaeda. Hezbollah certainly is not a grave threat to the United States at the moment, so we can afford to give them some breathing room, as long as that helps secure peace in Iraq. But what other approach can the U.S. take to secure Iranian cooperation? This leads naturally into the second most important (or first, who knows really) issue facing Iran:

2. U.S. opposition to Iran's "nuclear energy program".

A more realistic approach to Iran may be easing up off of our campaign against the Iranian government's pursuit of nuclear technology. Once again, this approach would make us wildly unpopular with Israel, and would certainly be unpopular with many (if not most) Americans. But we have to ask ourselves: is a stable Iraq more important than Iranian nuclear ambitions, or vice versa? I'm not sure yet where I stand on this issue, personally.

As an aside, persuading Syria to cooperate with us in Iraq may be much easier. The upcoming UN investigation into the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri (which is almost guaranteed to uncover some Syrian complicity) has put a lot of pressure on the Syrian government. Perhaps the U.S. can offer some form of support to Syria during this investigation, although I'm not sure yet what form of support that might be.

These approaches may not mesh well with our well-honed sense of American morality, but they may be pragmatic. Basically, the question comes down to: What is more inimical to American interests, Iranian and Syrian influence in Iraq, or Iranian and Syrian influence in Lebanon?

-- DAE