The Party of Intolerance

Much has been made of the recent elections. Either the elections represent a monumental shift in American politics or a just a result of a few bad policies (IRAQ) and election stratagems (ie focusing on NJ, et al the cost of focusing on the MO senate race too late). This election, being only one data point, may not be interesting. What is interesting, in terms of the long run, is how much the GOP loves to screw themselves up strategically. I call the GOP the party of "intolerance" not to list lefty talking points -- I happen to agree with much of the predictable argumentation about globalization and modernity meaning that we should learn to be hospitable to, rather than trying hard but failing to suppress, difference. But that's beside the point. The comforting part is how much the "GOP Base" is leading to their own party's demise.

1) the tom tancredo line on immigration: Even if you shut down the border (hint: you won't), none of the problems that you've misdiagnosed as being caused by illegal immigration (the loss of jobs/wages, education and health care systems being overburdened, crime, whatever) will be solved by them. All the GOP line will do is alienate one of the significant demographics in future of the American electorate -- Mexican Americans. Remember how bad the Southern Strategy turned out for the GOP relationship with African Americans (and correspondingly how that demographic is probably the most solidly Democratic voters)? Alas, they did not learn. The anti-immigration right loves to screw their own party and Karl Rove's strategies for winning them a long term majority.

2) The Evangelical Right: This is a little bit overblown. In 2004, Bush won a whole bunch of voters (security mom's, working class white males, etc.) because of security, it was not just Jesusland that went red. In 2006, independents voting for Dem's beat the depressed (relative to 2k4) GOP base turn out. In the long run however, only one of two outcomes will happen if the GOP ties its fortune to the Christian right. (1) less likely -- the Christian right gets its agenda through the branches, somehow beating the separation of powers and overturning the secular tradition. They'll eventually do what alienates Americans more than anything (and what led to the downfall of the traditional LBJ/FDR left) -- getting involved in other peoples business. They'll start telling Americans who to marry, what to watch on TV, etc etc. Then the GOP will lose, over and over. And then someone in the supreme court reads the constitution and realizes most of their agenda is unconstitutional. Lose a few elections, change nothing. (2) more likely: the Christian right fails to get their agenda because of separation of powers (the courts) and the fact that most people really do not like their whacky ideas. They, like many radical political movements, get alienated and apathetic from mainstream politics. At best (for the Dems), they start third parties which take away voters Ralph Nadar-style. The GOP having thrown their lot in goes away for a while as they try to find a new base.
On the whole, as much as I'd like to see it, I do not believe the evangelical right is as prominent in the GOP as many think, so I don't think the GOP will sink with that Titanic.

(3) Terrorism: Again, two possiblities. (1) less likely -- Either the GOP hardline, "kill and capture" is the only way to defeat "Islamic terrorism" line is true and the issue goes away because we win (for arguments sake lets agree with the position that Iraq was a failure in execution not a bad policy). Domestic issues, which Democrats win most polls in, become the focus. (2) more likely: their policies lead to more instability and rising threat levels, we are in a long, bloody war. The public starts asking questions like why the GOP, the party of national security, cannot actually secure the count. The GOP's intolerance to the possibility that other national security strategies besides unilateral wars of choice might be worth considering takes its toll.

This is the great part about democracy: people can only be fooled for so long. In the long run, it is not good politics that wins elections, but good policies. The quaint idea of actually caring about the "American people" and governing well, not only happens to be good for the country, it also wins elections! Now if only the Democrats could figure this out as well.

All of this is of course unsupported conjecture mixed with a dash of wishful thinking :-).

RA