Iraq

My position on Iraq (1) their is a civil war between two parties with a third party ready to get into if anyone pulls them in (2) the government of Iraq and US forces can do very little to limit this in the short term (3) their is no chance AQ takes over any piece of Iraq, both the Shia's and the Baathists want them out, so the terrorism increase is minimal (4) given US public opinion we'll have to be out by '08. No chance our people will let us be in Iraq to nation-build for ten years.

This means we should withdraw to Kurdistan and Baghdad. Make the Kurds feel secure to prevent them from declaring their own state. Talk to Syria and Iran, give them limited cooperation and some carrots, to make sure that the sectarian civil war is limited and does not spread. Civilian and Shia/Sunni militia life would be lost. So would police and Iraq armed forces. Some American life would be lost in the pull out and in Baghdad. It's the least bad option.

RA